INTERVIEWS WITH COAL MARKET LEADERS
Interview with Hugh Lee, Energy Economist
Published June 2018
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): How do you see the coal market playing out for the rest of 2018?
Hugh Lee (HL): ARA steam coal prices were over 90 $/t from September 2017 to January 2018. They then fell to 76 $/t at the end of March but have since rallied to 82 $/t in mid-April. There is plenty of supply around the world, so prices are not likely to rally much further unless there is an unforeseen disruption. Indeed prices are more likely to fall than rise because there is some danger of oversupply, the most likely cause of which would be the Chinese imposing restrictions on coal imports.
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Interview with Heru Dewanto, President Director, PT Cirebon Power
Published April 2018
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): What do you see as the most important trends shaping Indonesian power today?
HD: Constant Regulatory Changes
There have been near to 125 issuances of new and amended regulations related to electricity for the last five years. In 2017 alone 40 new regulations were issued. Such constantly moving regulatory framework scares off investors and lenders. It is important to understand that regulatory changes will cause significant and drastic impacts to highly regulated industry like electricity.
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Interview with Daniel Miller, Head of Business Development, Rocktree Logistics
Published April 2018
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): What are the primary challenges facing coal logistics companies at present?
Daniel Miller (DM): We serve multiple clients in the anchorage where we operate. Critical to achieving customer satisfaction is being able to schedule our transhipment operations in the most efficient manner to minimize waiting time, both for our customers’ vessels as well as for our own. In any given month, our Operations team manages the arrival and departure of about 30 Ocean-Going Vessels (OGV) and 300 barges. Lack of timely information on the availability of barges due to poor communication systems along the route can create delays, which has potentially knock-on effects for the entire supply chain.
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Interview with Yahdian Falah, Senior Manager Coal Market Analysis, EnBW
Published March 2018
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Lots has been discussed around the coal phase out in Europe, but Germany is having a harder time than expected moving away from coal. How long do you think coal will remain a major part of Germany’s energy mix?
Yahdian Falah (YF): In 2017, Germany took out approximately 4,5 GW capacity of hard coal-fired power plants, which either closed down permanently or are going into the grid reserve. According to the German Federal Network Agency, there will be 3,1 GW of announced capacity closures and 2,3 GW of planned new build over the next 3 years. This makes a net capacity change of 0,8 GW until 2021. So, based on the Agency’s information, Germany will not be seeing another wave of closures like the country saw in 2017.
Interview with Aly Al Etreby, Business Developer, SESCO Group
Published February 2018
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): It’s looking like Egypt is set to increase its coal imports considerably over the next few years as the government ramps up construction of coal fired plants in response to the countries rising energy demand. How well are the logistical facilities in Egypt set up to deal with this?
Aly Al Etreby (AAE): The last two years coal and pet coke imports reached around 5 million tons annually, this year we expect to reach 6 million tons due to the new cement plants capacities coming online, and by 2020 we expect imports to reach 12 million as the two new power plants become operational.
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V K Arora, Chief Mentor, Karam Chand Thapar & Bros. (Coal Sales) Ltd.
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): A key aim of the government has been to reduce imports of coal in favour of domestically sourced coal. Do you think that India will ever be self-sufficient in coal? What is holding back greater progress?
V K Arora (VKA): Much as the government would like to replace import of coal by domestically sourced coal, perhaps it may not be possible. CIL has ambitious plans to increase the production from 620 MMT to 1000 MMT by 2022. SCCL would also increase the production from 60 MMT to 80 MMT...
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Jeremy Sussman, Head of US Equity Research
Published December 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Seaborne markets have had a strong year, with relatively high and stable prices compared to the past few years. How has this impacted the US industry?
Jeremy Sussman (JS): Thermal coal exports are likely to more than double from the US this year, and overall exports are likely to increase over 50%. Clearly, this has tightened US thermal coal supply, and pushed prices up, especially in the east...
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Michael Hale, Director, Balamara Resources
Published October 2017
Coaltrans Conference (CC): Hi Michael. Please can you give an overview of Balamara Resources, your role, and your background in the industry?
Michael Hale (MH): Balamara Resources is an Australian public company which we decided to de-list from the ASX. We have approximately one thousand shareholders many of whom have invested for long term returns generally through their pension funds…
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Georgi Slavov, Head of Research, Marex Spectron Ltd.
Published August 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Hi Georgi, thanks for agreeing to take part. Please introduce yourself and your role at Marex Spectron.
Georgi Slavov (GS): My name is Georgi and I am the Head of Research at Marex Spectron Ltd.. My team and I are responsible for the research & analysis of key energy, basic materials & industrial transportation markets. More specifically…
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Deepak Kannan, Managing Editor – Asia Thermal Coal, S&P Global Platts
Published August 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): What will 2018 hold for the ASEAN energy mix?
Deepak Kannan (DK): Thermal coal will continue to play a major role in the ASEAN energy mix for the next two or three decades at least.
In Southeast Asia, about 50 GW of coal-fired capacity is expected to come online by 2020, which would require as much as…
Hugh Lee, Independent Consultant
Published July 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Hi Hugh. Thanks for agreeing to have a chat with us. Please can you give us a brief introduction of yourself, and your background?
Hugh Lee (HL): I have worked in the world coal industry for over forty years. I led the work on coal supply, transport and trade for the International Energy Agency’s coal research office…
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Gary Cochrane , Managing Director, Resource Management International Pty Ltd
Published June 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Do you see investor interest returning to the junior coal mining sector in Australia?
Gary Cochrane (GC): Investors have already returned to the junior mining sector in Australia. A very good example is the support to Whitehaven Coal in the last 12 months and also to smaller companies like Baralaba Coal, Terracom Resources and Bathurst Resources that…
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Andrew Jones, Analyst, Resource-Net
Published May 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): How is the long-term demand outlook for sea-borne coking coal?
Andrew Jones (AJ): World metallurgical coke production peaked at 685m tonnes in 2014, according to Resource-Net data, and will almost certainly be lower in the future.
Last year it was 649m tonnes, a 36m tonnes decline. That is not to say, however, that demand for sea-borne coking…
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Otacilio Peçanha, Director, Negotiare Consultores
Published May 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): How strong is the Brazilian steel industry these days?
Otacilio Peçanha (OP): Coal-based steel industry in Brazil faces tough competition with foreign steel, especially Chinese. National currency (Real) appreciation is another issue that the industry has to take into consideration.
Consolidation in the coal-based steel industry in Brazil has not happened to a reasonable degree yet and…
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Vishal Thiruvedula, Senior Analyst - Supply Chain & Commodities Research, Thomson Reuters
Published April 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): What are the major changes to coal trade flows that we’re seeing at the moment?
Vishal Thiruvedula (VT): The disruptions caused by cyclone Debbie to the rail infrastructure in Queensland that resulted in a supply loss of over 15 Million Tonnes increased coking coal shipments from United States.
In H2-2016 we noticed an uptick in Colombian coal…
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Michael Tang, VP, JLC
Published April 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): How much scope is there for the prices to increase in the near future?
Michael Tang (MT): China coal prices rose considerably in the second half of 2016, thanks to massive capacity reduction and the 276 mining workday regulation. Coal supply and demand were rebalancing from an oversupply scenario amid the undergoing supply-side reform. However, the government's…
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Heru Dewanto, President Director, Cirebon Power
Published March 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Please can you introduce yourself, your company, and your role?
Heru Dewanto (HD): Heru Dewanto, President Director of Cirebon Power, an IPP company operating Supercritical coal fired power plant 660 MW and now constructing its expansion unit of 1000MW with Ultra Supercritical technology. The expansion unit is the first project who signed PPA among 35GW projects list…
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Guillaume Perret, Founder and Director, Perret Associates
Published February 2017
Guillaume talks to Coaltrans about his forecasts for the coal price, which key market trends we should be looking out for in 2017 and optimism for the coal market in the year ahead...
Watch the video
Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive, World Coal Association
Published January 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Last year was a good year for coal, with prices finally recovering. As the CEO of the world’s primary association of coal miners, what’s the mood of the industry? Are executives confident that the gains of 2016 can be held this year?
Benjamin Sporton (BS): Coal continues to be the backbone of global electricity generation and still…
Phil Gonet, President, Illinois Coal Association
Published January 2017
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): The shock election of Donald Trump has obviously inspired a more hopeful attitude in the US coal industry. Do you share in this enthusiasm?
Phil Gonet (PG): I wouldn’t classify Trump’s election as a shock. Perhaps a mild surprise. Yes, Trump made many positive statements about coal during the campaign and I expect him to follow through…
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Dr. Shadia Elshishini, Consultant to the Ministry of Environment, Government of Egypt
Published December 2016
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): What are the main regulatory changes regarding coal-fired power generation?
Shadia Elshishini (SE): Coal has been introduced to Egypt by Prime Minister’s Decrees that have allowed the use of Coal as fuel in only two industries: Cement and Power Plants as well as its use in any other industry where it is required as input to the…
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Chris Walker, Sales, Marketing and Logistics Manager, Bengalla Mine
Published November 2016
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Over the past few years there has been a lot of negativity about the long-term future of coal-fired power generation. Do you feel confident about continued coal demand from Asian economies?
Chris Walker (CW): The World Coal Association has spent significant time and energy (excuse the pun) to understand the long term view on coal. Their assessment…
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Sanjay Kumar, Head of Solid Fuels Strategic Sourcing, Lafarge India Ltd
Published November 2016
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Thermal coal is currently seeing a historic price rally. Do you think that such high prices are sustainable? Where do you expect to see the price of thermal coal into India in 2017? What would be the ideal price range for your business?
Sanjay Kumar (SK): This price rally is due to increase in demand from China…
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Frank Thiel, Managing Director, Quezon Power (Philippines), Limited Co. (QPL)
Published November 2016
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): The Philippines has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. How is this growth translating into power demand, and subsequently, thermal coal demand? What percentage of Filipino power demand is currently met with coal?
Frank Thiel (FT): Indeed. The economy is growing at 5-6% and expected to continue that way for the foreseeable future. Annual…
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Mike Nelson, Global Head, Petcoke & Coal, Reliance Industries Limited
Published October 2016
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Thermal coal has been one of the best performing commodities of the year. Do you think that the current price is sustainable or do you expect a market correction in the coming months?
Mike Nelson (MN): While I think there was some expectation of an increase in coal prices, I don’t think anyone was expecting such a…
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Jim Nicholson, Senior Vice President Asia, Argus Media Ltd
Published October 2016
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): We look forward to welcoming you as a panellist at the Coaltrans Emerging Asian Coal Markets conference in Manila next month. What are the biggest changes to South East Asia’s coal market that you have witnessed over the past year?
Jim Nicholson (JN): The main change in the market has been the rebound in coal prices over…
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Kshitij Saxena, Director - Sales - South East Asia & India, Mechel Carbon AG
Published October 2016
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): We are currently seeing a price rally in both coking and thermal coal. Do you think that this rally is sustainable or do you think we will see a price correction at some point in 2017? Are you optimistic about the future for coal?
Kshitij Saxena (KS): The price rally will continue until end of the year…
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Waleed Abouraya, President of MEBPC Egypt and RGS Egypt
Published June 2016
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): Please can you give us an update on coal consumption in Egypt? How quickly is demand for coal growing?
Waleed Abouraya (WA): Egypt started using coal and solid fuels in May 2014, and since then the volume of coal consumption has been increasing every month. Currently about 15 cement producers out of a total 27 have started…
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Mehmet Topeli, Energy Planning and Reporting Manager, Isken
Published June 2016
Coaltrans Conferences (CC): You are the Energy Planning and Reporting Manager at ISKEN, Turkey’s largest private coal-fired power plant, and responsible for 3.5 million mt of coal procurement each year. What are the greatest practical challenges that you are faced with on a daily basis in terms of coal procurement?
Mehmet Topeli (MT): At Isken, we have Power Purchase Agreement…
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Mark John Lim, Manager, Fuel Procurement, Team Energy
Published May 2016
Coaltrans Insider (CI): Which sources of thermal coal look most competitive?
Mark Lim, Team Energy (ML): Talking purely of 6000NAR material and in reference to Philippines as a destination, then it’s still Australia.
CI: Do you see any signs of an increase in prices in the medium term?
ML: There should be gradual increase in the medium term if only…
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